Seb expressed scepticism about the optimistic forecasts for LNG demand and highlighted the severe implications of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East on global energy supply... before he was challenged to a dance-off with a robot on the exhibition floor.

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Seb talks through his latest Deep Dive into volatility, why hedge funds seem unable to extend their record net long bullish position in TTF futures, and how this could be keeping a lid on gas prices despite the bullish setup.

The discussion focusses on near-term risks to European energy security, and ends with a look further ahead at the potential for a shift from crisis to abundance later this decade.

Chapters

• 00:00 Intro & Hormuz scenario survey results
• 12:50 Iran, JCPOA & demand destruction
• 16:35 EU gas prices, VaR & hedge funds
• 26:13 Market manipulation & EU gas storage
• 34:25 Famine to feast: gas market narrative whipsaw

Links

• Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model
• The Hidden Ceiling: Why TTF Can't Break €50/MWh

They explore modelling scenarios from the Energy Flux Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model, which quantifies whether and when the new wave of global LNG projects might offset lost Qatari and UAE capacity that's stuck behind the Hormuz chokepoint.

The discussion concludes with breaking news about Donald Trump's last-minute 'TACO' extension of the ceasefire, and the likelihood of a continued stalemate in this unenviable geopolitical situation.

Takeaways

• Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz impact energy markets
• Modeling scenarios provide insights into future LNG supply
• Listeners can vote on the most likely Hormuz outcome
• Diplomatic stalemate leads to continued uncertainty

Chapters

• 00:00 Introduction and Catching Up with Mad Markets
• 05:29 Configuring the Hormuz Model and Scenarios
• 17:10 Deep Uncertainty and Market Failure
• 36:33 Three Scenarios for the Future - Vote for your favourite
• 44:00 Breaking News and Continued Stalemate

Links

1. Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model
2. Deep Dive explaining model scenarios
3. Hormuz model YouTube tutorial
4. Listener poll: vote for your favourite scenario (or describe your own)

Host Seb Kennedy takes stock of the outlook for the Middle East energy way. He weighs up the implications of a diplomatic solution versus regime change in Iran on future Middle Eastern energy supply.

He explores the challenges faced in either scenario by Qatar's LNG industry, and for Asian LNG buyers who are bearing the brunt of the deepening global energy supply shock.

Chapters

• 00:00 - Decoding the significance of the latest 'TACO'
• 03:00 - Regime change and future Middle East energy exports
• 08:28 - The inevitability of irreversible gas demand destruction
• 13:14 - Iran ground invasion: unwinnable war?
• 22:12 - Unenviable choices: global economy and deepening supply deficit

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Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy is joined by Victor Ponsford, strategic energy communications consultant, to assess the wide-ranging impacts of these unprecedented events on global gas supply and energy stability.

They explore the market response, shipping and transit costs, deep geopolitical uncertainty, historical context, and the potential for broader escalation beyond the Middle East region. The conversation delves into the discrepancy between physical reality on the ground vs. cautious market pricing, and the inadequacy of conventional geopolitical analysis in the face of irrational actors on the global stage.

Chapters

• 00:00 Update on Middle East Energy War
• 07:31 Initial Market Response
• 14:17 Physical Reality vs. Market Pricing
• 27:05 Regional Instability and Broader Escalation

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The conversation delves into the likely duration of the Hormuz closure, and why political and military factors are conspiring to keep this strategic maritime chokepoint closed for months rather than weeks.

They discuss how physical and financial market players in the European gas market are positioning to manage risk and capitalise on the repercussions of prolonged loss of 20% of global LNG supply.

And they explore the yawning gap between political rhetoric and physical reality on the ground in the Persian Gulf.

Article referenced:

• US LNG war profits, quantified (Energy Flux)
• Hormuz closure triggers record TTF liquidation (Energy Flux)

Chapters

• 00:00 Welcome to the Podcast and Guest Introduction
• 02:30 Hormuz Crisis Duration, and the Pain Factor in Diplomacy
• 05:31 US LNG Windfall Profits: Winners & Losers from Iran War
• 11:00 Impact on US Consumers and America's Domestic Gas Market
• 18:25 Diverse Uses of LNG Across Emerging Markets
• 24:19 Politics and Market Perception of Hormuz Closure
• 32:26 Impact of Unforeseen Outages and Future Market Conditions

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He discusses the potential for cheaper gas to impact investments in renewable energy technologies and the mindset shifts among policymakers as energy crises recede.

The monologue also delves into the future of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the volatility of energy markets, emphasising the need for strategic planning in the face of potential shortages in the coming years.

🎦 Watch video version: Energy Flux YouTube page

Takeaways

• The energy crisis is shifting towards a more stable pricing environment.
• Cheaper gas may hinder the urgency of the energy transition.
• Policymakers may deprioritise energy security as crises fade.
• Abundance in energy can lead to complacency in innovation.
• The LNG market faces uncertainty with potential project cancellations.
• Investment in LNG infrastructure is becoming less attractive.
• Gas volatility underscores the need for strategic energy planning.
• The LNG industry itself is warning of a supply crunch in the early 2030s.
• Future energy policies must consider the potential for sudden market swings.

Chapters

00:00 Talking Gas Outside the Kings Cross Gasometer Buildings

03:06 The Impact of Cheap Gas on Energy Transition

04:37 Policy Challenges and Mindset Shifts

08:17 The Future of LNG Projects and Market Dynamics

14:34 The Paradox of Energy Abundance and Complacency

For more info and to subscribe, head to www.EnergyFlux.news

Chief among these is the European Union's recent decision to ban Russian LNG; the implications for EU aspirations of energy independence; and the trade-offs of relying on allies like the US and Qatar, which are using the EU's own sustainability regulations as a tool of diplomatic coercion.

He also covers the US sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, and the complexities of enforcing these measures. Seb connects the dots to uncover a troubling picture of geopolitical dysfunction, where decisive actions are undercut by empty threats and a glaring lack of enforcement.

Are we witnessing a coherent strategy, or just a series of volatile half-measures that create the illusion of power?

Key Topics Discussed:

• The EU's Accelerated LNG Ban: Why the 2027 deadline is a bigger deal than it seems, and the logistical headaches it creates for Central Europe.
• The Dependency Pivot: How swapping Russian gas for US LNG creates a new set of vulnerabilities.
• Empty Threats: Deconstructing why the US and Qatar's warnings over EU sustainability rules are a bluff that collapses under scrutiny.
• Sanctions & Enforcement: Analysing the new US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, and why their success hinges on an enforcement track record that's far from perfect.

To find out more about Energy Flux and to sign up for free updates, head to ⁠www.EnergyFlux.news⁠.

The main story featured in this week’s show is:

* Italy calls for EU investigation into speculation on TTF inflating gas prices (Montel News, QualEnergia)

In response to reader questions, I discussed:

* The EU Commission’s draft plan to consider US LNG equity investments to ward off Trump trade war (Politico)

* The impact of Trump’s incoming 25% steel tariff on US LNG projects

* Outlook for prices during the LNG ‘glut’ and potential for demand response from Asian buyers

* The excess LNG problem: Japan’s LNG buyers are over-contracted (IEEFA)

I also referenced the following Energy Flux articles:

* Gas, carbon and the geopolitical web (link)

* Sizing up the LNG glut (part one and two)

Happy listening!

— Seb

P.S. If you want to ask a question or make a comment for the next episode, send me a message. I prioritise Q&A requests from paying subscribers 😇

To hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news

The ruling opens the door to a potential revival of the defunct Russia-Germany gas pipeline that was half destroyed in a dramatic subsea explosion in 2022.

How should we square the circle of an EU ban on Russian gas with a possible revival of Nord Stream 2? How does the restructuring ruling affect the ownership of this contentious piece of infrastructure? Would any buyer really be interested in owning it?

This episode unpacks the legal ruling and weighs up the options in light of the EU’s push to outlaw Russian gas entirely, which I covered in last week’s Chart Deck.

I also discuss the historical purpose of Nord Stream 2, the role it played before and during the 2021-22 energy crisis, and how Gazprom’s actions have galvanised a European political consensus against a resumption of Russian gas dependency.

Thanks for listening,

— Seb

To hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news

Swingeing import tariffs could be lifted just as quickly as they were introduced. However, even a swift resolution at this stage would be unlikely to purge the bearish sentiment now dominating the European natural gas market.

This episode catches up on the many market-moving events of recent weeks, with a focus on disruption to energy trade, relaxation of the EU’s gas storage targets, and bearish factors weighing on the summer gas demand outlook.

In the reader Q&A, I fielded questions relating to my recent take on the shift to a new lower pricing regime, and the risks posed by a cratering price environment to customers buying US LNG.

I also share my thoughts on The New Joule Order, a thought-provoking essay from esteemed energy commodities analyst Jeff Currie.

Thanks for listening,

— Seb

P.S. Don’t forget to share your questions, thoughts and reactions for inclusion in the next episode. I prioritise input from paid subscribers 😉

To hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news

The big story of the week was the wild rollercoaster on Dutch TTF, the European benchmark. I dig into what caused the epic price swings, drawing on my analysis from Thursday’s subscriber-only Chart Deck.

In response to a reader question, I also discussed the correlation between TTF and Henry Hub — the benchmark for natural gas in North America — and how this is evolving with the unstoppable rise of US LNG.

Don’t forget to send me your questions, comments and observations for the next episode. I read everything, and love hearing from listeners. Just hit reply to any email, or send me a direct message via Flux Exchange.

Remember, you can also listen to the podcast on your favourite platform:

* Apple

* Spotify

* YouTube

* Or just search for Energy Flux wherever you get your podcasts

Happy listening!

— Seb

To hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news

After the overwhelmingly positive response to my recent run of podcast appearances, I realised there is huge appetite for audio format news and commentary.

As I explain in this introductory episode, the concept is simple: chat through the most interesting headlines and market events of the week, and respond to any questions and observations mailed in from readers.

This won’t be a super-slick polished production, but rather a discreet space for people to tune in and engage with Energy Flux in audio form.

I’m still figuring out the schedule, length and frequency, but didn’t want to let small details stand in the way of actually getting started. So here goes!

If you have any burning questions you would like me to tackle in the next episode, just hit reply to this email or message me via Flux Exchange, the Energy Flux forum.

Thanks for listening,

— Seb

To hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news

Don’t get me wrong, regulatory risk has not evaporated — far from it.

After the apparent relaxation of the EU’s gas storage refilling targets, there’s lingering uncertainty around how existing regulations are being interpreted.

But the regulatory standoff generated by the European Commission’s confusing recommendation is unlikely to be resolved quickly.

In the meantime, the intense geopolitical newsflow emanating from Ukraine and latest round of ceasefire talks in Saudi Arabia is a bottomless source of market uncertainty.

This was always going to be the case, and I was planning to discuss it all at length in the podcast.

But an influx of reader questions on these topics in recent days confirms to my mind that warp speed geopolitical upheaval is the top issue of concern for market players and observers alike.

The Energy Flux posts referenced in the pod are as follows:

* Burning the house down

* The bear roars

* The ‘wild card’ for TTF in 2025

* Sizing up the LNG glut — parts one and two

Happy listening :)

— Seb

P.S. Apologies if audio quality is not perfect, I’m still finding my feet with recording equipment and software.

To hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news

The title of the paper is Mapping the Storage-Speculation Nexus: Hedge fund positioning and the TTF forward curve.

The paper explores a novel methodology for identifying investment fund trading strategies on Dutch TTF, the benchmark European natural gas futures price.

Seb explains the methodology in full, and what it tells us about last year's TTF bull run and subsequent dramatic correction in February and April this year.

He concludes by suggesting policy reforms that could be explored to mitigate some of the speculation-driven price volatility that has characterised TTF in recent times.

The full slide deck can be downloaded at www.EnergyFlux.news, where you can sign up for the Energy Flux newsletter -- where all this research was originally published in 2024 and early 2025.

The ceasefire is limited to energy infrastructure only, meaning Russian forces can continue their military advancements into Ukrainian territory.

I recorded this emergency episode of the podcast late last night to share some initial thoughts about what this ‘ceasefire’ means for energy markets, and the wider prospects of a lasting peace settlement.

Shortly after uploading the podcast, I read on X that Russian forces broke the agreement barely 30 minutes after signing it by bombing power infrastructure in Sloviansk… 🤦‍♂️

As it happens, I have a Deep Dive in the works that will explore Russia’s targeted campaign of destruction against Ukrainian natural gas infrastructure since the New Year.

That piece will be published very soon — be sure to subscribe at www.EnergyFlux.news to get it delivered straight to your inbox.

Thanks for listening.

— Seb

P.S. Don’t forget to share your questions, thoughts and reactions to this and other energy-related news headlines for inclusion in the next episode. I prioritise input from paid subscribers 😉

To hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news

👉For more analysis, subscribe to the newsletter at www.EnergyFlux.news

Summary

In this episode of the Energy Flux podcast, host Seb Kennedy reflects on the Gastech 2025 event, discussing the rising US presence in the LNG market, the economic realities of pricing, and the political implications of US LNG exports.

He explores the future of US natural gas production and shares insights from his experiences at the event, emphasizing the complexities and challenges facing the energy sector.

Key topics & takeaways

• Gastech was a momentous event at a significant historical juncture
• The disconnect between public statements from industry leaders and market realities is widening
• Over-investment in LNG capacity is reshaping the global glut depth & duration outlook
• Transatlantic margins will face significant compression (as detailed in last week’s Hot Take)
• North-West Europe-TTF price dislocation as lead indicator for distressed LNG cargo pricing
• How merit order economics and cost inflation affect LNG investment attractiveness
• The history of LNG, and the difference between conventional integrated export projects vs US LNG second wave
• The political & economic implications of gas/electricity price inflation in the domestic US market
• Can US shale production growth keep up with competition for upstream gas resources (LNG vs data centres)?

Read more & subscribe at 👉 www.EnergyFlux.news 👈

I cover:

* Why some in Moscow might be eyeing Alaska’s mineral wealth

* How a land swap or ceasefire could reshape Ukraine’s future

* The sanctions relief carrot Trump might dangle — and why I’m sceptical

* The Armenia–Azerbaijan peace deal and the Zangezur corridor gambit

* What all this could mean for LNG markets already swimming in supply

There’s also a quick update at the end on what I’ve been building at Energy Flux: new data tools, a members-only discussion forum, and an AI-powered daily briefing for premium subscribers.

Thanks for listening,

— Seb

To hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news