<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:psc="http://podlove.org/simple-chapters" xmlns:podcast="https://podcastindex.org/namespace/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Nothing to See Here]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>Every trading day begins with the same question:</p><p></p><p><i>Is there actually something unusual happening today?</i></p><p></p><p>Most traders jump straight to charts, headlines and opinions. But markets leave behavioural fingerprints long before anyone explains them.</p><p></p><p>Hosted by <b>David Martin</b>, full-time trader and founder of SYWBDY and <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="http://Mosaic.trade" target="_blank"><b>Mosaic.trade</b></a>, <b>Nothing to See Here</b> is a short daily market research briefing exploring one piece of market behaviour worth paying attention to before the trading day begins.</p><p></p><p>Rather than predicting where markets are going, each episode examines how similar conditions have behaved historically, what today’s price action looks like relative to that history, and the questions worth asking next.</p><p></p><p>No trade calls. No sensational headlines. No certainty.</p><p></p><p>Just historical market research, objective context, and a framework for making better trading decisions.</p><p></p><p>Because sometimes there’s <b>everything</b> to see.</p>]]></description><link>mosaic.trade</link><generator>Riverside.fm (https://riverside.com)</generator><lastBuildDate>Sun, 18 Oct 2026 15:42:00 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://api.riverside.com/hosting/2xye5M3K.rss" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><author><![CDATA[David Martin]]></author><pubDate>Tue, 28 Jul 2026 21:48:18 GMT</pubDate><copyright><![CDATA[2026 David Martin]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><ttl>60</ttl><category><![CDATA[Business]]></category><category><![CDATA[Business]]></category><itunes:author>David Martin</itunes:author><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;Every trading day begins with the same question:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;Is there actually something unusual happening today?&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Most traders jump straight to charts, headlines and opinions. But markets leave behavioural fingerprints long before anyone explains them.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Hosted by &lt;b&gt;David Martin&lt;/b&gt;, full-time trader and founder of SYWBDY and &lt;a rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot; href=&quot;http://Mosaic.trade&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;Mosaic.trade&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;b&gt;Nothing to See Here&lt;/b&gt; is a short daily market research briefing exploring one piece of market behaviour worth paying attention to before the trading day begins.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Rather than predicting where markets are going, each episode examines how similar conditions have behaved historically, what today’s price action looks like relative to that history, and the questions worth asking next.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;No trade calls. No sensational headlines. No certainty.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Just historical market research, objective context, and a framework for making better trading decisions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Because sometimes there’s &lt;b&gt;everything&lt;/b&gt; to see.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:type>episodic</itunes:type><itunes:owner><itunes:name>David Martin</itunes:name><itunes:email>david@tgmcapital.net</itunes:email></itunes:owner><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:category text="Business"/><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><item><title><![CDATA[ASX 200 Fell Early, Finished Strong — How Far Does the Next Session Dip? | 16 Oct 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>The ASX 200 dropped 33 points in the first hour yesterday, then finished the cash session 37 points above its 10am open. Across the 12 previous cases since September 2021, the next ASX session traded at least 30 points below its open in 10 (average low -46.4 points), the first hour was negative 9 times, and the session closed lower 7 times and higher 5 (average -3.8 points).</p><p><br /></p><p>The filters are joined with AND, both measured on the prior day:</p><p>• AUS200 FIRST HOUR (PRIOR DAY) at or below -20 points (10:00 to 11:00 Sydney)</p><p>• AUS200 ASX SESSION (PRIOR DAY) at or above 20 points (10:00 open to 16:00 close, Sydney)</p><p><br /></p><p>Lows are measured from the 10am Sydney open. Today's session also matches; its outcome is not part of the sample. Small historical samples describe selected cases; they are not forecasts.</p><p><br /></p><p>Mosaic Collective: <a href="https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ad1451150dde75eb6be0a1d" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ad1451150dde75eb6be0a1d</a></p><p><br /></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">dbf748b1-def6-44d9-97ce-a481e08f7adc</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 15 Oct 2026 21:52:20 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/33029049a3082fec187d6312fcc82fd075b790da0ec8bfc8fbf727bb4670a548/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiJkYmY3NDhiMS1kZWY2LTQ0ZDktOTdjZS1hNDgxZTA4ZjdhZGMiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFkMTRhYjNmMjEyZDQwYWM4ZmRkYjY4L21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtMTAtMTVfXzIxLTUwLTQzLm1wMyJ9.mp3" length="2920743" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/dbf748b1-def6-44d9-97ce-a481e08f7adc/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;The ASX 200 dropped 33 points in the first hour yesterday, then finished the cash session 37 points above its 10am open. Across the 12 previous cases since September 2021, the next ASX session traded at least 30 points below its open in 10 (average low -46.4 points), the first hour was negative 9 times, and the session closed lower 7 times and higher 5 (average -3.8 points).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The filters are joined with AND, both measured on the prior day:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• AUS200 FIRST HOUR (PRIOR DAY) at or below -20 points (10:00 to 11:00 Sydney)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• AUS200 ASX SESSION (PRIOR DAY) at or above 20 points (10:00 open to 16:00 close, Sydney)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Lows are measured from the 10am Sydney open. Today&apos;s session also matches; its outcome is not part of the sample. Small historical samples describe selected cases; they are not forecasts.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Mosaic Collective: &lt;a href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ad1451150dde75eb6be0a1d&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ad1451150dde75eb6be0a1d&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:01:31</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>ASX 200 Fell Early, Finished Strong — How Far Does the Next Session Dip? | 16 Oct 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Day After a US CPI Sell-Off: Does Asia Set the S&P Direction? | 15 Oct 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>The S&amp;P 500 fell 84 points on US CPI day and Australian futures were down about 22 this morning. In the 8 previous sessions after a CPI-day fall of at least 50 points, the S&amp;P close moved in the same direction as the Asia session every time.</p><p><br /></p><p>Today's question: what happens the day after a US CPI sell-off?</p><p><br /></p><p>Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, AND):</p><p>• US500 EVENTS = POST CPI (the day after a US CPI release)</p><p>• S&amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) at or below -50 (S&amp;P 500 cash close-to-close on CPI day)</p><p><br /></p><p>AUS200 ASX SESSION (10am to 4pm, 7 sessions with data): 4 higher, all by at least 44 points; 3 lower; median +44. XJO close-to-close: lower in 6 of 7, mostly from the gap at the open. US500 GLOBAL HIGH reached at least +50 from the Globex reopen in 4 of 8; US500 GLOBAL LOW reached at least -80 in 4 of 8. US500 ASIA SESSION and the S&amp;P500 cash close finished in the same direction in all 8. The first big trading window after the number setting the tone is a possible explanation, not something eight sessions can prove. A very small sample; not a forecast.</p><p><br /></p><p>Mosaic Collective: <a href="https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6acff88d3e100a45f25f1d1b" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6acff88d3e100a45f25f1d1b</a></p><p><br /></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">4bfd55a3-e2c6-43c4-8887-975ced757196</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 14 Oct 2026 22:06:07 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/222373f6f8159929ba5036e0601ca642b2697202d4e0718d2fe071d1b0803cdc/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiI0YmZkNTVhMy1lMmM2LTQzYzQtODg4Ny05NzVjZWQ3NTcxOTYiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFjZmZjYzBjZGIyNjg5ZjA0NThkYjY1L21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtMTAtMTRfXzIyLTUtNTIubXAzIn0=.mp3" length="3037772" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/4bfd55a3-e2c6-43c4-8887-975ced757196/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;The S&amp;amp;P 500 fell 84 points on US CPI day and Australian futures were down about 22 this morning. In the 8 previous sessions after a CPI-day fall of at least 50 points, the S&amp;amp;P close moved in the same direction as the Asia session every time.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Today&apos;s question: what happens the day after a US CPI sell-off?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, AND):&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• US500 EVENTS = POST CPI (the day after a US CPI release)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• S&amp;amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) at or below -50 (S&amp;amp;P 500 cash close-to-close on CPI day)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;AUS200 ASX SESSION (10am to 4pm, 7 sessions with data): 4 higher, all by at least 44 points; 3 lower; median +44. XJO close-to-close: lower in 6 of 7, mostly from the gap at the open. US500 GLOBAL HIGH reached at least +50 from the Globex reopen in 4 of 8; US500 GLOBAL LOW reached at least -80 in 4 of 8. US500 ASIA SESSION and the S&amp;amp;P500 cash close finished in the same direction in all 8. The first big trading window after the number setting the tone is a possible explanation, not something eight sessions can prove. A very small sample; not a forecast.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Mosaic Collective: &lt;a href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6acff88d3e100a45f25f1d1b&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6acff88d3e100a45f25f1d1b&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:01:35</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>The Day After a US CPI Sell-Off: Does Asia Set the S&amp;P Direction? | 15 Oct 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[AUS200 Falls Into US CPI Day: What Happens Overnight? | 14 Oct 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>Australian futures slipped into today's US CPI release, down about 16 points before the open. On the 21 previous CPI days like this, the ASX session was mixed, but the overnight session that contains the CPI release finished higher in 17 of the 20 with data.</p><p><br /></p><p>Today's question: what does the AUS200 do overnight, once the CPI number actually lands?</p><p><br /></p><p>Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, AND):</p><p>• US500 EVENTS = CPI DAY</p><p>• AUS200 OVERNIGHT FUTURES DISLOCATION (PRE) at or below -1 (futures below the prior ASX close before the open)</p><p><br /></p><p>AUS200 ASX SESSION (10am to 4pm): 9 higher, 12 lower, median -6. AUS200 OVERNIGHT SESSION (POST) (4pm close to about 7am, covering the 8:30am New York CPI release): 17 higher, 3 lower, median +32, mean +36; only one session lost more than 5 points (-58 on 10 June 2026). Median overnight high +58 and low -19 from the ASX close. The hot October 2022 print (overnight +105) and the soft November 2022 print (+190) both finished higher; Mosaic does not record CPI surprises, so this sample does not split by them. Futures having already priced the fear into the number is a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. Not a forecast.</p><p><br /></p><p>Mosaic Collective: <a href="https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ace987a5b91b24a53f67480" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ace987a5b91b24a53f67480</a></p><p><br /></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">54d26043-31af-46f0-b2f9-d1e54261e9bc</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 13 Oct 2026 21:46:07 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/6ef80063e928419678cbe61b7ef6acbf960d3e44ce32df646be057c0bf3d0fb9/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiI1NGQyNjA0My0zMWFmLTQ2ZjAtYjJmOS1kMWU1NDI2MWU5YmMiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFjZWE2OGE2YjkyMDhhOWYxNzI4MDk4L21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtMTAtMTNfXzIxLTQ1LTQ3Lm1wMyJ9.mp3" length="3377155" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/54d26043-31af-46f0-b2f9-d1e54261e9bc/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;Australian futures slipped into today&apos;s US CPI release, down about 16 points before the open. On the 21 previous CPI days like this, the ASX session was mixed, but the overnight session that contains the CPI release finished higher in 17 of the 20 with data.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Today&apos;s question: what does the AUS200 do overnight, once the CPI number actually lands?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, AND):&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• US500 EVENTS = CPI DAY&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• AUS200 OVERNIGHT FUTURES DISLOCATION (PRE) at or below -1 (futures below the prior ASX close before the open)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;AUS200 ASX SESSION (10am to 4pm): 9 higher, 12 lower, median -6. AUS200 OVERNIGHT SESSION (POST) (4pm close to about 7am, covering the 8:30am New York CPI release): 17 higher, 3 lower, median +32, mean +36; only one session lost more than 5 points (-58 on 10 June 2026). Median overnight high +58 and low -19 from the ASX close. The hot October 2022 print (overnight +105) and the soft November 2022 print (+190) both finished higher; Mosaic does not record CPI surprises, so this sample does not split by them. Futures having already priced the fear into the number is a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. Not a forecast.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Mosaic Collective: &lt;a href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ace987a5b91b24a53f67480&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ace987a5b91b24a53f67480&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:01:46</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>AUS200 Falls Into US CPI Day: What Happens Overnight? | 14 Oct 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[Day Before US CPI: Does a Green or Red First Hour Set the Tone? | 13 Oct 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>US CPI lands tomorrow night. On the 48 day-before-CPI sessions where the S&amp;P 500's first hour after the futures reopen moved, a green first hour was followed by a higher cash close 15 times out of 18. A red one, 12 times out of 30.</p><p><br /></p><p>Today's question: does a green or red first hour set the tone for the day before CPI?</p><p><br /></p><p>Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, AND):</p><p>• US500 EVENTS = PRE CPI (the day before a US CPI release)</p><p>• US500 FIRST HOUR GLOBAL SESSION at or above +1 (green) or at or below -1 (red), measured from the 18:00 New York Globex reopen to 18:59</p><p><br /></p><p>Green first hour (18 sessions since January 2022): US500 ASIA SESSION higher 13 times; S&amp;P500 cash close-to-close higher 15 times, median +28.5, mean +21; median global low -12.5 and high +44 from the reopen. Red first hour (30 sessions since November 2021): Asia higher 11 times (3 flat); S&amp;P500 higher 12 times, median -15.5; median global low -36.5 and high +17.5. The Asia session includes the first hour, and the rest of Asia looked much the same in both groups. The red group's mean S&amp;P move (+10.8) is lifted by 9 April 2025 (+498, the tariff-pause day); without it the mean is -6. Positioning into the CPI number is a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. Nine pre-CPI sessions with a flat first hour are excluded. Not a forecast.</p><p><br /></p><p>Mosaic Collective (green first hour setup): <a href="https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6acd5a72c3040be01140a11f" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6acd5a72c3040be01140a11f</a></p><p><br /></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">4297f9f7-b9f9-4571-8dcf-27071c3a5547</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2026 21:58:13 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/994fd54059f82561fdfe36cbd45d6b352c4bebcd27f2dfff5dc0fd0af7c766f7/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiI0Mjk3ZjlmNy1iOWY5LTQ1NzEtOGRjZi0yNzA3MWMzYTU1NDciLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFjZDU3ZDdkYWI4MGJkOTY1ODJlMDk4L21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtMTAtMTJfXzIxLTU3LTQzLm1wMyJ9.mp3" length="3343718" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/4297f9f7-b9f9-4571-8dcf-27071c3a5547/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;US CPI lands tomorrow night. On the 48 day-before-CPI sessions where the S&amp;amp;P 500&apos;s first hour after the futures reopen moved, a green first hour was followed by a higher cash close 15 times out of 18. A red one, 12 times out of 30.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Today&apos;s question: does a green or red first hour set the tone for the day before CPI?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, AND):&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• US500 EVENTS = PRE CPI (the day before a US CPI release)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• US500 FIRST HOUR GLOBAL SESSION at or above +1 (green) or at or below -1 (red), measured from the 18:00 New York Globex reopen to 18:59&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Green first hour (18 sessions since January 2022): US500 ASIA SESSION higher 13 times; S&amp;amp;P500 cash close-to-close higher 15 times, median +28.5, mean +21; median global low -12.5 and high +44 from the reopen. Red first hour (30 sessions since November 2021): Asia higher 11 times (3 flat); S&amp;amp;P500 higher 12 times, median -15.5; median global low -36.5 and high +17.5. The Asia session includes the first hour, and the rest of Asia looked much the same in both groups. The red group&apos;s mean S&amp;amp;P move (+10.8) is lifted by 9 April 2025 (+498, the tariff-pause day); without it the mean is -6. Positioning into the CPI number is a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. Nine pre-CPI sessions with a flat first hour are excluded. Not a forecast.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Mosaic Collective (green first hour setup): &lt;a href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6acd5a72c3040be01140a11f&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6acd5a72c3040be01140a11f&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:01:44</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>Day Before US CPI: Does a Green or Red First Hour Set the Tone? | 13 Oct 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[Columbus Day: Bonds Shut, Stocks Open. What Does the S&P Do? | 12 Oct 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>It's Columbus Day in the US: the bond market is shut, but stocks are open. Across the five Columbus Days since 2021, S&amp;P 500 futures rose into the US cash open every time, then the cash session stalled.</p><p><br /></p><p>Today's question: what does the S&amp;P do on Columbus Day?</p><p><br /></p><p>Sample: the five Columbus Day Mondays from 2021 to 2025 (11 Oct 2021, 10 Oct 2022, 9 Oct 2023, 14 Oct 2024, 13 Oct 2025), compared with every other day in Mosaic's history.</p><p><br /></p><p>US500 ASIA + LONDON SESSION (Globex reopen to the US cash open): up on all five, mean +29, median +20 (other days: up 54% of the time, median +3). The London session alone was up on all five, median +25. US500 FIRST HOUR: lower on all four days with data. US500 US SESSION: higher on two of five, mean -4. US500 GLOBAL LOW (from the Globex reopen): mean -19 against -37 on other days, never worse than -39. S&amp;P500 (POST), the next day's cash close-to-close: lower four times out of five, median -17. Thinner volume with the bond market closed is a possible explanation, not something five days can prove. A tiny sample; not a forecast.</p><p><br /></p><p>Mosaic Collective: <a href="https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6acbfcd5fe9c0d2574a121cd" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6acbfcd5fe9c0d2574a121cd</a></p><p><br /></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">8b1ae9b9-feba-476b-8bcb-a71603079941</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2026 21:12:00 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/f148c5f9ebb686a23626d7d7a4bd0f4e756110ef1d905f2163ad7c2b96a750f1/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiI4YjFhZTliOS1mZWJhLTQ3NmItOGJjYi1hNzE2MDMwNzk5NDEiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFjYmZiOGM1OTk0MmYzNGU4YWZiMjIyL21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtMTAtMTFfXzIxLTExLTQxLm1wMyJ9.mp3" length="3319476" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/8b1ae9b9-feba-476b-8bcb-a71603079941/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;It&apos;s Columbus Day in the US: the bond market is shut, but stocks are open. Across the five Columbus Days since 2021, S&amp;amp;P 500 futures rose into the US cash open every time, then the cash session stalled.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Today&apos;s question: what does the S&amp;amp;P do on Columbus Day?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Sample: the five Columbus Day Mondays from 2021 to 2025 (11 Oct 2021, 10 Oct 2022, 9 Oct 2023, 14 Oct 2024, 13 Oct 2025), compared with every other day in Mosaic&apos;s history.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;US500 ASIA + LONDON SESSION (Globex reopen to the US cash open): up on all five, mean +29, median +20 (other days: up 54% of the time, median +3). The London session alone was up on all five, median +25. US500 FIRST HOUR: lower on all four days with data. US500 US SESSION: higher on two of five, mean -4. US500 GLOBAL LOW (from the Globex reopen): mean -19 against -37 on other days, never worse than -39. S&amp;amp;P500 (POST), the next day&apos;s cash close-to-close: lower four times out of five, median -17. Thinner volume with the bond market closed is a possible explanation, not something five days can prove. A tiny sample; not a forecast.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Mosaic Collective: &lt;a href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6acbfcd5fe9c0d2574a121cd&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6acbfcd5fe9c0d2574a121cd&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:01:44</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>Columbus Day: Bonds Shut, Stocks Open. What Does the S&amp;P Do? | 12 Oct 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[Oil Spikes, S&P Falls: What Happens Over the Next Three Days? | 9 Oct 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>Brent traded almost $5 above its open overnight while the S&amp;P 500 closed 34 points lower. After the 32 previous days like this, the S&amp;P traded at least 50 points above the next day's global session open within three trading days in 28 cases.</p><p><br /></p><p>Today's question: after an oil spike and a down day in US stocks, what does the S&amp;P do over the next three trading days?</p><p><br /></p><p>Filters (Mosaic, both, AND, on the condition day):</p><p>• BRENT OPEN TO DAY HIGH at or above 4.5 (Brent's open-to-high move, USD per barrel)</p><p>• S&amp;P500 at or below -1 (S&amp;P 500 cash close-to-close, points)</p><p><br /></p><p>Measured from the next trading day's global session open through the close of the third trading day (Mosaic AI path study, 32 occurrences, condition dates 28 Feb 2022 to 10 Sep 2026). Highest level reached: at least +50 points in 28 of 32 (median +87). Lowest level reached: below the open in 31 of 32 (median -30). Net finish at the close of day three: 24 of 32 higher, median +36, mean +51, range -198 to +301. The highs and lows do not show which came first. Ten dates fall between late February and March 2022 and seven in March 2026, so these are not 32 independent episodes. An oil-shock sell-off being bought back as the headline cools is a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. Not a forecast.</p><p><br /></p><p>Full research note: <a href="https://sywbdt.substack.com/p/mosaic-market-research-note-18" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://sywbdt.substack.com/p/mosaic-market-research-note-18</a></p><p><br /></p><p>Explore the setup yourself at Mosaic: <a href="https://mosaic.trade" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://mosaic.trade</a></p><p><br /></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">aea44d31-7c79-4470-a254-08f2c68e67a1</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 08 Oct 2026 22:46:57 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/38dc71ceff2643b6ec50e8bd5417044cfb0af20d763d4040ad8ca35607b4e218/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiJhZWE0NGQzMS03Yzc5LTQ0NzAtYTI1NC0wOGYyYzY4ZTY3YTEiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFjODFkNGUzMWVlYmZjMDEzNDEyODg1L21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtMTAtOF9fMjItNDYtMzgubXAzIn0=.mp3" length="3217494" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/aea44d31-7c79-4470-a254-08f2c68e67a1/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;Brent traded almost $5 above its open overnight while the S&amp;amp;P 500 closed 34 points lower. After the 32 previous days like this, the S&amp;amp;P traded at least 50 points above the next day&apos;s global session open within three trading days in 28 cases.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Today&apos;s question: after an oil spike and a down day in US stocks, what does the S&amp;amp;P do over the next three trading days?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Filters (Mosaic, both, AND, on the condition day):&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• BRENT OPEN TO DAY HIGH at or above 4.5 (Brent&apos;s open-to-high move, USD per barrel)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• S&amp;amp;P500 at or below -1 (S&amp;amp;P 500 cash close-to-close, points)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Measured from the next trading day&apos;s global session open through the close of the third trading day (Mosaic AI path study, 32 occurrences, condition dates 28 Feb 2022 to 10 Sep 2026). Highest level reached: at least +50 points in 28 of 32 (median +87). Lowest level reached: below the open in 31 of 32 (median -30). Net finish at the close of day three: 24 of 32 higher, median +36, mean +51, range -198 to +301. The highs and lows do not show which came first. Ten dates fall between late February and March 2022 and seven in March 2026, so these are not 32 independent episodes. An oil-shock sell-off being bought back as the headline cools is a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. Not a forecast.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Full research note: &lt;a href=&quot;https://sywbdt.substack.com/p/mosaic-market-research-note-18&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://sywbdt.substack.com/p/mosaic-market-research-note-18&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Explore the setup yourself at Mosaic: &lt;a href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:01:41</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>Oil Spikes, S&amp;P Falls: What Happens Over the Next Three Days? | 9 Oct 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[Bitcoin and Gold Fall Together: Does the ASX First Hour Follow? | 8 Oct 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>Bitcoin fell more than $2,200 and gold $56 an ounce yesterday, and Australian futures went down with them. After the 23 previous days like this, futures were typically 74 points below the prior ASX close before the open. This morning they were down about 54, less than usual.</p><p><br /></p><p>Today's question: when futures don't fall as hard, does the ASX finish the job in the first hour?</p><p><br /></p><p>I cover: the setup, how far Australian futures usually fell before the open, and what the first hour did when futures held up versus when they had already dropped.</p><p><br /></p><p>Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, both, AND):</p><p>• BTC D-1 at or below -1,500 (the prior day's Bitcoin open-to-close move, USD)</p><p>• GOLD DAY CHANGE (PRIOR DAY) at or below -50 (the prior gold session's close-to-close change, USD per ounce)</p><p><br /></p><p>Twenty-three completed sessions matched since June 2022 (today also matches; its outcome is not yet known; two ASX-holiday Mondays have no ASX data). Before the 10am open, Mosaic's pre-open futures dislocation reading had a median of -74 points against the prior ASX close (mean -67.5) and was negative in 17 of the 23. In the 10 sessions where it held better than -60, the AUS200 first hour (10am to 11am) fell in 8, was flat once and rose once, averaging -25 points. In the 13 where it was already -60 or lower, the first hour was split, 7 up and 6 down (average -6). Broad cash-raising across assets, and local selling at the open when futures have not priced it in, are possible explanations, not something this sample proves. A small sample; not a forecast.</p><p><br /></p><p>Explore the setup yourself at Mosaic: <a href="https://mosaic.trade" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://mosaic.trade</a></p><p><br /></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">6720b3fa-9ef8-4015-9f94-fb27dee308b9</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 07 Oct 2026 21:44:41 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/1eaf16216eae61ede82a242670588096e3d74920efdbdeb4bd7b7c8fd50b905d/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiI2NzIwYjNmYS05ZWY4LTQwMTUtOWY5NC1mYjI3ZGVlMzA4YjkiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFjNmJkMjM0MzdlNDgzNjhiOTE5NTFiL21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtMTAtN19fMjEtNDQtNC5tcDMifQ==.mp3" length="3393037" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/6720b3fa-9ef8-4015-9f94-fb27dee308b9/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;Bitcoin fell more than $2,200 and gold $56 an ounce yesterday, and Australian futures went down with them. After the 23 previous days like this, futures were typically 74 points below the prior ASX close before the open. This morning they were down about 54, less than usual.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Today&apos;s question: when futures don&apos;t fall as hard, does the ASX finish the job in the first hour?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I cover: the setup, how far Australian futures usually fell before the open, and what the first hour did when futures held up versus when they had already dropped.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, both, AND):&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• BTC D-1 at or below -1,500 (the prior day&apos;s Bitcoin open-to-close move, USD)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• GOLD DAY CHANGE (PRIOR DAY) at or below -50 (the prior gold session&apos;s close-to-close change, USD per ounce)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Twenty-three completed sessions matched since June 2022 (today also matches; its outcome is not yet known; two ASX-holiday Mondays have no ASX data). Before the 10am open, Mosaic&apos;s pre-open futures dislocation reading had a median of -74 points against the prior ASX close (mean -67.5) and was negative in 17 of the 23. In the 10 sessions where it held better than -60, the AUS200 first hour (10am to 11am) fell in 8, was flat once and rose once, averaging -25 points. In the 13 where it was already -60 or lower, the first hour was split, 7 up and 6 down (average -6). Broad cash-raising across assets, and local selling at the open when futures have not priced it in, are possible explanations, not something this sample proves. A small sample; not a forecast.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Explore the setup yourself at Mosaic: &lt;a href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:01:46</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>Bitcoin and Gold Fall Together: Does the ASX First Hour Follow? | 8 Oct 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[ASX After a Global Rally: Is the Move Already In at the Open? | 7 Oct 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>The ASX 200, the FTSE and the S&amp;P 500 all rallied at least 40 points on Tuesday, but Australian futures were flat this morning. After the 42 previous days like this, the XJO averaged +50 from the prior close, but almost all of it was already in place at the 10am open.</p><p><br /></p><p>Today's question: what does the ASX do the day after the whole world rallies?</p><p><br /></p><p>I cover: the setup, how the XJO finished from the prior close, how high it traded, why most of that move usually came before the open, and the four times futures didn't rally beforehand.</p><p><br /></p><p>Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, all three, AND):</p><p>• XJO (PRIOR DAY) at or above +40 points (ASX 4pm close-to-close)</p><p>• FTSE (PRIOR DAY) at or above +40 points (FTSE 100 close-to-close)</p><p>• S&amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) at or above +40 points (S&amp;P 500 cash close-to-close)</p><p><br /></p><p>Forty-two completed sessions matched since October 2021 (today also matches; its outcome is not yet known). The XJO finished higher in 36, flat once and lower in 5, averaging +50.2 points from the prior 4pm close (median +48). In 38 of the 42 it traded at least 40 points above that close at some stage of the day. From the 10am open to the 4pm close, the AUS200 averaged -2.1 points and finished lower 26 times, so most of the move came before the open. Before the open, Australian futures have usually stood well above the prior ASX close (median +53 on Mosaic's pre-open dislocation reading); this morning that reading was -1. Only four of the 42 had that reading below +20 (22 Dec 2021, 10 Mar 2022, 24 Apr 2025, 9 Apr 2026). In three of them the AUS200 traded at least 44 points above the 10am open (highs +97, +44, +59; closes +62, +30, +50 from the open); in the fourth it peaked at +7 and closed -6. Futures pricing the move overnight is a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. A sample of four is very small; not a forecast.</p><p><br /></p><p>Mosaic Collective: <a href="https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ac565dce9165ef9dd5d7b8b" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ac565dce9165ef9dd5d7b8b</a></p><p><br /></p><p>TradingView Idea (the same 42 moves plotted as levels on an AUS200 chart): <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/FoNIQzT6-XJO-After-a-Global-Rally-Is-the-Move-Already-In-by-the-Open/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/FoNIQzT6-XJO-After-a-Global-Rally-Is-the-Move-Already-In-by-the-Open/</a></p><p><br /></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">9d4546f4-2ef8-4a89-9a0d-9240dd5a069d</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 06 Oct 2026 21:37:49 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/5cfc670a0b73414f440adfb62efc179a22b341dfa367cc61ef161c41db492892/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiI5ZDQ1NDZmNC0yZWY4LTRhODktOWEwZC05MjQwZGQ1YTA2OWQiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFjNTY5YzYxMmI2ODE1NTU2NTY1MmQ1L21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtMTAtNl9fMjEtMzYtNi5tcDMifQ==.mp3" length="3450716" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/9d4546f4-2ef8-4a89-9a0d-9240dd5a069d/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;The ASX 200, the FTSE and the S&amp;amp;P 500 all rallied at least 40 points on Tuesday, but Australian futures were flat this morning. After the 42 previous days like this, the XJO averaged +50 from the prior close, but almost all of it was already in place at the 10am open.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Today&apos;s question: what does the ASX do the day after the whole world rallies?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I cover: the setup, how the XJO finished from the prior close, how high it traded, why most of that move usually came before the open, and the four times futures didn&apos;t rally beforehand.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, all three, AND):&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• XJO (PRIOR DAY) at or above +40 points (ASX 4pm close-to-close)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• FTSE (PRIOR DAY) at or above +40 points (FTSE 100 close-to-close)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• S&amp;amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) at or above +40 points (S&amp;amp;P 500 cash close-to-close)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Forty-two completed sessions matched since October 2021 (today also matches; its outcome is not yet known). The XJO finished higher in 36, flat once and lower in 5, averaging +50.2 points from the prior 4pm close (median +48). In 38 of the 42 it traded at least 40 points above that close at some stage of the day. From the 10am open to the 4pm close, the AUS200 averaged -2.1 points and finished lower 26 times, so most of the move came before the open. Before the open, Australian futures have usually stood well above the prior ASX close (median +53 on Mosaic&apos;s pre-open dislocation reading); this morning that reading was -1. Only four of the 42 had that reading below +20 (22 Dec 2021, 10 Mar 2022, 24 Apr 2025, 9 Apr 2026). In three of them the AUS200 traded at least 44 points above the 10am open (highs +97, +44, +59; closes +62, +30, +50 from the open); in the fourth it peaked at +7 and closed -6. Futures pricing the move overnight is a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. A sample of four is very small; not a forecast.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Mosaic Collective: &lt;a href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ac565dce9165ef9dd5d7b8b&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ac565dce9165ef9dd5d7b8b&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;TradingView Idea (the same 42 moves plotted as levels on an AUS200 chart): &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/FoNIQzT6-XJO-After-a-Global-Rally-Is-the-Move-Already-In-by-the-Open/&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/FoNIQzT6-XJO-After-a-Global-Rally-Is-the-Move-Already-In-by-the-Open/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:01:48</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>ASX After a Global Rally: Is the Move Already In at the Open? | 7 Oct 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[S&P 500 After a Big Rally: What the ASX's First 15 Minutes Says | 6 Oct 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>The S&amp;P 500 rallied 46 points overnight. After S&amp;P rallies of at least 40 points, the AUS200's first 15 minutes after the 10am Sydney open has lined up with how the next S&amp;P session went, almost a day later.</p><p><br /></p><p>Today's question: after the S&amp;P rallies at least 40 points, does the first 15 minutes of the ASX tell us anything about the S&amp;P?</p><p><br /></p><p>I cover: why the ASX open can matter for the S&amp;P, what happened when the AUS200 rose at least 20 points in its first 15 minutes, what happened when it fell at least 20, and how deep the S&amp;P's lows went in each case.</p><p><br /></p><p>Two Mosaic Data Lab views, each joined with AND:</p><p>• Firm open: S&amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) at or above +40 points AND AUS200 FIRST 15 MINS (10:00 to 10:15am Sydney) at or above +20 points</p><p>• Weak open: S&amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) at or above +40 points AND AUS200 FIRST 15 MINS at or below -20 points</p><p><br /></p><p>Firm open, 15 sessions since July 2022: the S&amp;P (cash close-to-close) closed higher 10 times, flat once and lower 4 times, averaging +21.8 points (median +27). The US500 global-session low averaged 35 points below the Globex reopen (median 24); 3 of 15 reached at least 50 below.</p><p><br /></p><p>Weak open, 29 sessions since January 2022: the S&amp;P averaged -4.3 points, but the median was +14 and 16 sessions still closed higher; five fell 50 points or more (the largest -208 on 10 April 2025). The global-session low averaged 59 points below the Globex reopen (median 35); 12 of 29 reached at least 50 below.</p><p><br /></p><p>Australia being one of the first large cash markets to trade after a US rally is a possible explanation, not something these samples prove. Today's session matches the S&amp;P condition; its ASX first 15 minutes and outcome are not yet known. Small historical samples; not forecasts.</p><p><br /></p><p>Mosaic Collective (weak-open setup): <a href="https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ac41a70c2766df4a9d73685" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ac41a70c2766df4a9d73685</a></p><p><br /></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">ce02c35b-5847-4387-8886-28e89c1c9fe1</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 05 Oct 2026 22:19:54 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/1bd6ae0bf9b3157af8f9c22b308be473bdb6b5ed094032c550774b32faf5bbad/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiJjZTAyYzM1Yi01ODQ3LTQzODctODg4Ni0yOGU4OWMxYzlmZTEiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFjNDIxZjU3MGVkZjcwZGRjNzZiMDc1L21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtMTAtNV9fMjItMTctMjUubXAzIn0=.mp3" length="3450716" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/ce02c35b-5847-4387-8886-28e89c1c9fe1/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;The S&amp;amp;P 500 rallied 46 points overnight. After S&amp;amp;P rallies of at least 40 points, the AUS200&apos;s first 15 minutes after the 10am Sydney open has lined up with how the next S&amp;amp;P session went, almost a day later.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Today&apos;s question: after the S&amp;amp;P rallies at least 40 points, does the first 15 minutes of the ASX tell us anything about the S&amp;amp;P?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I cover: why the ASX open can matter for the S&amp;amp;P, what happened when the AUS200 rose at least 20 points in its first 15 minutes, what happened when it fell at least 20, and how deep the S&amp;amp;P&apos;s lows went in each case.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Two Mosaic Data Lab views, each joined with AND:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• Firm open: S&amp;amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) at or above +40 points AND AUS200 FIRST 15 MINS (10:00 to 10:15am Sydney) at or above +20 points&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• Weak open: S&amp;amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) at or above +40 points AND AUS200 FIRST 15 MINS at or below -20 points&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Firm open, 15 sessions since July 2022: the S&amp;amp;P (cash close-to-close) closed higher 10 times, flat once and lower 4 times, averaging +21.8 points (median +27). The US500 global-session low averaged 35 points below the Globex reopen (median 24); 3 of 15 reached at least 50 below.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Weak open, 29 sessions since January 2022: the S&amp;amp;P averaged -4.3 points, but the median was +14 and 16 sessions still closed higher; five fell 50 points or more (the largest -208 on 10 April 2025). The global-session low averaged 59 points below the Globex reopen (median 35); 12 of 29 reached at least 50 below.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Australia being one of the first large cash markets to trade after a US rally is a possible explanation, not something these samples prove. Today&apos;s session matches the S&amp;amp;P condition; its ASX first 15 minutes and outcome are not yet known. Small historical samples; not forecasts.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Mosaic Collective (weak-open setup): &lt;a href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ac41a70c2766df4a9d73685&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ac41a70c2766df4a9d73685&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:00:00</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>S&amp;P 500 After a Big Rally: What the ASX&apos;s First 15 Minutes Says | 6 Oct 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[AUS200: Month-End Selling, Then a New Month — Does It Carry Over? | 1 Oct 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>The AUS200 fell 31 points in yesterday's aftermarket, the half hour after the 4pm close on the last day of the month and quarter. In the 14 previous first days of a new month after an aftermarket drop of at least 10 points, the AUS200 day finished higher 12 times, averaging +26 points.</p><p><br /></p><p>Today's question: when the aftermarket falls at least 10 points into month-end, what happens on the first day of the new month?</p><p><br /></p><p>I cover: what the aftermarket window is and why month-end institutional flows (the closing auction, index and portfolio rebalancing) can push it lower, how the first day of the new month has finished, and the two down days.</p><p><br /></p><p>Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, both, AND):</p><p>• AUS200 AFTERMARKET (PRIOR DAY) at or below -10 points (the prior day's 4:00pm to 4:30pm Sydney move)</p><p>• GLOBAL EVENTS = SOM (start of month)</p><p><br /></p><p>Fourteen completed sessions matched since December 2021 (today also matches; its outcome is not yet known). From the prior overnight futures close to the 4pm close, the AUS200 day finished higher 12 times, averaging +26.4 points (median +29.5). From the 10am open to the 4pm close, the ASX session finished higher 10 times, averaging +13.6, so roughly half of the day's average gain came before the open. The two down days (1 Jul 2022, -6; 3 Jan 2023, -102) were both also the first day of a new quarter; the other seven quarter starts finished higher. Month-end rebalancing and turn-of-month inflows are a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. Separate session moves do not show intraday order; these historical cases are not forecasts.</p><p><br /></p><p>Mosaic Collective: <a href="https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6abd666d4e33fd09300d73d4" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6abd666d4e33fd09300d73d4</a></p><p>TradingView Idea (the same 14 moves plotted as levels on an AUS200 chart): <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/exs6pA4N-AUS200-Month-end-aftermarket-selling-then-a-new-month/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/exs6pA4N-AUS200-Month-end-aftermarket-selling-then-a-new-month/</a></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">0c511387-96fc-46dd-aa5f-843337ec67d2</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 30 Sep 2026 20:27:47 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/8f8afe54be5c0f4b868876c54b0f619baa896658f3f10b0708a8f2c12f022d8a/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiIwYzUxMTM4Ny05NmZjLTQ2ZGQtYWE1Zi04NDMzMzdlYzY3ZDIiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFiZDcwMGQ5YzllYzg4M2NjODVlZGY3L21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtOS0zMF9fMjAtMjQtNDUubXAzIn0=.mp3" length="2944985" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/0c511387-96fc-46dd-aa5f-843337ec67d2/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;The AUS200 fell 31 points in yesterday&apos;s aftermarket, the half hour after the 4pm close on the last day of the month and quarter. In the 14 previous first days of a new month after an aftermarket drop of at least 10 points, the AUS200 day finished higher 12 times, averaging +26 points.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Today&apos;s question: when the aftermarket falls at least 10 points into month-end, what happens on the first day of the new month?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I cover: what the aftermarket window is and why month-end institutional flows (the closing auction, index and portfolio rebalancing) can push it lower, how the first day of the new month has finished, and the two down days.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, both, AND):&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• AUS200 AFTERMARKET (PRIOR DAY) at or below -10 points (the prior day&apos;s 4:00pm to 4:30pm Sydney move)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• GLOBAL EVENTS = SOM (start of month)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Fourteen completed sessions matched since December 2021 (today also matches; its outcome is not yet known). From the prior overnight futures close to the 4pm close, the AUS200 day finished higher 12 times, averaging +26.4 points (median +29.5). From the 10am open to the 4pm close, the ASX session finished higher 10 times, averaging +13.6, so roughly half of the day&apos;s average gain came before the open. The two down days (1 Jul 2022, -6; 3 Jan 2023, -102) were both also the first day of a new quarter; the other seven quarter starts finished higher. Month-end rebalancing and turn-of-month inflows are a possible explanation, not something this sample proves. Separate session moves do not show intraday order; these historical cases are not forecasts.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Mosaic Collective: &lt;a href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6abd666d4e33fd09300d73d4&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6abd666d4e33fd09300d73d4&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;TradingView Idea (the same 14 moves plotted as levels on an AUS200 chart): &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/exs6pA4N-AUS200-Month-end-aftermarket-selling-then-a-new-month/&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/exs6pA4N-AUS200-Month-end-aftermarket-selling-then-a-new-month/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:00:00</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>AUS200: Month-End Selling, Then a New Month — Does It Carry Over? | 1 Oct 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[AUS200: CPI Day After an S&P Down Day — Does the ASX Shrug It Off? | 30 Sep 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>The S&amp;P 500 fell 14 points overnight, but Australian futures closed the night 18 points above yesterday's ASX close. And it's Australian CPI day. In 14 previous occasions, the ASX finished above its 10am open 13 times, with an average move of +39 points to the 4pm close.</p><p><br /></p><p>Today's question: does a soft Wall Street matter on CPI day if our futures haven't cracked?</p><p><br /></p><p>I cover: the setup (CPI day, a softer S&amp;P the day before and overnight futures holding up), how the ASX session finished in the 14 previous occasions, how many finished at least 40 points higher, and the first hour.</p><p><br /></p><p>Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, all three, AND):</p><p>• AUS200 EVENTS = CPI DAY</p><p>• S&amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≤ −1 point</p><p>• AUS200 OVERNIGHT FUTURES DISLOCATION (PRE) ≥ −30 points (the overnight futures close minus the prior day's ASX 4pm price)</p><p><br /></p><p>Fourteen completed sessions matched, October 2021 to June 2026 (today also matches; its outcome is not yet known). The ASX finished above the 10am open in 13 of 14, averaging +39 points (median +41.5); the exception finished 33 points lower. Eight of the 14 finished at least 40 points higher. All 14 traded above the open at some point (median session high +48). The first hour was mixed: 7 up, 6 down, 1 flat. Separate session moves do not show intraday order. A sample of 14 describes selected cases; it is not a forecast.</p><p><br /></p><p>Mosaic Collective: <a href="https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6abc33778a15a0a7cd884444" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6abc33778a15a0a7cd884444</a></p><p><br /></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">c6007073-b70c-4de7-8cd7-1e7a54334e1c</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 29 Sep 2026 22:10:14 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/980e5464660b4c154b4cd7e3605bc7d3a01d02eeabeeb210bd1d2f9e61d857f3/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiJjNjAwNzA3My1iNzBjLTRkZTctOGNkNy0xZTdhNTQzMzRlMWMiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFiYzM2ODYzMjAzN2JiY2VlNjgyNGE5L21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtOS0yOV9fMjItNy0yLm1wMyJ9.mp3" length="3008515" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/c6007073-b70c-4de7-8cd7-1e7a54334e1c/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;The S&amp;amp;P 500 fell 14 points overnight, but Australian futures closed the night 18 points above yesterday&apos;s ASX close. And it&apos;s Australian CPI day. In 14 previous occasions, the ASX finished above its 10am open 13 times, with an average move of +39 points to the 4pm close.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Today&apos;s question: does a soft Wall Street matter on CPI day if our futures haven&apos;t cracked?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I cover: the setup (CPI day, a softer S&amp;amp;P the day before and overnight futures holding up), how the ASX session finished in the 14 previous occasions, how many finished at least 40 points higher, and the first hour.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, all three, AND):&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• AUS200 EVENTS = CPI DAY&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• S&amp;amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≤ −1 point&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• AUS200 OVERNIGHT FUTURES DISLOCATION (PRE) ≥ −30 points (the overnight futures close minus the prior day&apos;s ASX 4pm price)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Fourteen completed sessions matched, October 2021 to June 2026 (today also matches; its outcome is not yet known). The ASX finished above the 10am open in 13 of 14, averaging +39 points (median +41.5); the exception finished 33 points lower. Eight of the 14 finished at least 40 points higher. All 14 traded above the open at some point (median session high +48). The first hour was mixed: 7 up, 6 down, 1 flat. Separate session moves do not show intraday order. A sample of 14 describes selected cases; it is not a forecast.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Mosaic Collective: &lt;a href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6abc33778a15a0a7cd884444&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6abc33778a15a0a7cd884444&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:00:00</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>AUS200: CPI Day After an S&amp;P Down Day — Does the ASX Shrug It Off? | 30 Sep 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[AUS200: A Late Sell-Off Into RBA Tuesday — Rally or Collapse? | 29 Sep 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>The ASX 200 sold off into the close yesterday, and today is RBA Tuesday. In five previous occasions after a late sell-off into an RBA Tuesday, four rallied in the first hour and finished the ASX session more than 30 points higher; the other collapsed from the open.</p><p><br /></p><p>Today's question: after a late sell-off into an RBA Tuesday, what does the ASX session do?</p><p><br /></p><p>I cover: the setup (a prior-day late sell-off and an RBA Tuesday), the first-hour and full ASX-session moves in the five previous occasions, the one session that collapsed, and how wide the day's range has been.</p><p><br /></p><p>Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, both, AND):</p><p>• AUS200 LATE MOVE (PRIOR DAY) = SHORT (the prior day's 14:30–16:00 Sydney swing-reversal legs, carried forward as context)</p><p>• AUS200 EVENTS = RBA TUESDAY</p><p><br /></p><p>Five completed sessions matched since 2022 (today also matches; its outcome is not yet known). Four rallied at least 20 points in the first hour (+20, +28, +29, +77) and finished the ASX session more than 30 points higher (+32, +32, +58, +123). The other fell 43 in the first hour, never traded above the 10am open and finished 113 points lower. Four of the five had an ASX-session range of at least 99 points (99, 104, 127, 139); one was 42. Separate session moves do not show intraday order. A sample of five is very small and describes selected cases; it is not a forecast.</p><p><br /></p><p>Mosaic Collective: <a href="https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6abac4ab68cc35f7fbddb43d" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6abac4ab68cc35f7fbddb43d</a></p><p>TradingView Idea (the same five moves plotted as levels on an AUS200 chart): <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/yrinnSqX-AUS200-late-sell-off-into-RBA-Tuesday-five-historical-cases/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/yrinnSqX-AUS200-late-sell-off-into-RBA-Tuesday-five-historical-cases/</a></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">5c7340ae-90d1-4e38-aa85-26b940b9f7e8</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2026 20:17:26 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/7df3f131c777449b050053c52592fda43e10a3c801095c6e530b031c949a60a5/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiI1YzczNDBhZS05MGQxLTRlMzgtYWE4NS0yNmI5NDBiOWY3ZTgiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFiYWNhYjQ2ZTBiMTI0NGY0ZTM0MjBhL21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtOS0yOF9fMjAtMTQtNDQubXAzIn0=.mp3" length="2501112" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/5c7340ae-90d1-4e38-aa85-26b940b9f7e8/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;The ASX 200 sold off into the close yesterday, and today is RBA Tuesday. In five previous occasions after a late sell-off into an RBA Tuesday, four rallied in the first hour and finished the ASX session more than 30 points higher; the other collapsed from the open.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Today&apos;s question: after a late sell-off into an RBA Tuesday, what does the ASX session do?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I cover: the setup (a prior-day late sell-off and an RBA Tuesday), the first-hour and full ASX-session moves in the five previous occasions, the one session that collapsed, and how wide the day&apos;s range has been.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, both, AND):&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• AUS200 LATE MOVE (PRIOR DAY) = SHORT (the prior day&apos;s 14:30–16:00 Sydney swing-reversal legs, carried forward as context)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• AUS200 EVENTS = RBA TUESDAY&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Five completed sessions matched since 2022 (today also matches; its outcome is not yet known). Four rallied at least 20 points in the first hour (+20, +28, +29, +77) and finished the ASX session more than 30 points higher (+32, +32, +58, +123). The other fell 43 in the first hour, never traded above the 10am open and finished 113 points lower. Four of the five had an ASX-session range of at least 99 points (99, 104, 127, 139); one was 42. Separate session moves do not show intraday order. A sample of five is very small and describes selected cases; it is not a forecast.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Mosaic Collective: &lt;a href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6abac4ab68cc35f7fbddb43d&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6abac4ab68cc35f7fbddb43d&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;TradingView Idea (the same five moves plotted as levels on an AUS200 chart): &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/yrinnSqX-AUS200-late-sell-off-into-RBA-Tuesday-five-historical-cases/&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/yrinnSqX-AUS200-late-sell-off-into-RBA-Tuesday-five-historical-cases/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:00:00</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>AUS200: A Late Sell-Off Into RBA Tuesday — Rally or Collapse? | 29 Sep 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[AUS200: Does a Weak US Futures Start Carry Into Australia? | 28 Sep 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>The S&amp;P 500 rallied 43 points on Friday, but it reopened 7 points lower this morning and dropped another 17 in the first hour of the global session. In the 14 previous Australian sessions after that setup, the ASX finished at or below its open 13 times.</p><p><br /></p><p>Today's question: does early weakness in US futures carry into the Australian session?</p><p><br /></p><p>I cover: the setup (an S&amp;P gain, a lower Globex reopen and a weak first global-session hour), how often the ASX session finished at or below its open, the full Australian day from the overnight futures close, and how the S&amp;P itself finished.</p><p><br /></p><p>Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, all three, AND): S&amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) at least +1 point (the prior session's cash close-to-close); US500 GLOBAL SESSION OPEN GAP at most -5 points (the prior cash close to the 18:00 ET Globex reopen); US500 FIRST HOUR GLOBAL SESSION at most -5 points (the Globex reopen to 18:59:59 ET).</p><p><br /></p><p>Across the 15 completed matching sessions since August 2021 (26 January 2024 was Australia Day, so the ASX figures use 14): the ASX finished at or below its 10am open 13 times (12 lower, one flat), averaging -28.6 points to the 4pm close; from the prior overnight futures close to 4pm, the AUS200 day averaged -53.1 points; and the S&amp;P 500 closed lower in 11 of the 15, averaging -30 points. Today's session also matches; its outcome is not yet known. Separate session moves do not show intraday order.</p><p><br /></p><p>Mosaic Collective: <a href="https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ab9a4d882ae67ac21c90b92" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ab9a4d882ae67ac21c90b92</a></p><p><br /></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">5b08f084-0831-46ec-9428-ab0289612128</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 27 Sep 2026 23:34:48 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/5b27cca0c2e02f86c54b06265f31caffbfd10b3d85ecb74b0000106b09d8ae2f/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiI1YjA4ZjA4NC0wODMxLTQ2ZWMtOTQyOC1hYjAyODk2MTIxMjgiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFiOWE3YTYxMDcxNTIwNjQ1ZjIzNzYwL21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtOS0yN19fMjMtMzItNTQubXAzIn0=.mp3" length="2884799" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/5b08f084-0831-46ec-9428-ab0289612128/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;The S&amp;amp;P 500 rallied 43 points on Friday, but it reopened 7 points lower this morning and dropped another 17 in the first hour of the global session. In the 14 previous Australian sessions after that setup, the ASX finished at or below its open 13 times.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Today&apos;s question: does early weakness in US futures carry into the Australian session?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I cover: the setup (an S&amp;amp;P gain, a lower Globex reopen and a weak first global-session hour), how often the ASX session finished at or below its open, the full Australian day from the overnight futures close, and how the S&amp;amp;P itself finished.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, all three, AND): S&amp;amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) at least +1 point (the prior session&apos;s cash close-to-close); US500 GLOBAL SESSION OPEN GAP at most -5 points (the prior cash close to the 18:00 ET Globex reopen); US500 FIRST HOUR GLOBAL SESSION at most -5 points (the Globex reopen to 18:59:59 ET).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Across the 15 completed matching sessions since August 2021 (26 January 2024 was Australia Day, so the ASX figures use 14): the ASX finished at or below its 10am open 13 times (12 lower, one flat), averaging -28.6 points to the 4pm close; from the prior overnight futures close to 4pm, the AUS200 day averaged -53.1 points; and the S&amp;amp;P 500 closed lower in 11 of the 15, averaging -30 points. Today&apos;s session also matches; its outcome is not yet known. Separate session moves do not show intraday order.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Mosaic Collective: &lt;a href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ab9a4d882ae67ac21c90b92&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade/share/collective/6ab9a4d882ae67ac21c90b92&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:01:30</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>AUS200: Does a Weak US Futures Start Carry Into Australia? | 28 Sep 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[S&P 500: Does a Bounce Off the Lows Carry Into the Next Session? | 25 Sep 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>The S&amp;P 500 dropped 38 points in the Asia session yesterday and closed down 8, but finished 52 points off its low. In all 13 previous cases like that, the next session traded at least 45 points to the global highs.</p><p>Today's question: does a bounce like that carry into the next session?</p><p>I cover: the setup (an Asia-session drop, a lower close and a finish well off the lows), how often the S&amp;P finished higher the next day, the average and worst finish, and the moves to the global highs.</p><p>Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, all three, AND): US500 ASIA SESSION (PRIOR DAY) at most -30 points; US500 GLOBAL LOW - CLOSE (PRIOR DAY) at least 40 points (prior day's cash close minus that day's US500 low); S&amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) at most -1 point (cash close-to-close).</p><p>Across the 13 completed matching sessions since August 2021: the S&amp;P 500 finished higher 12 times (mean +38.9 points, worst -7), and US500 reached at least +45 points to the global highs every time (mean +70.6), measured from the Globex reopen.</p><p>Today's chart on TradingView: <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US500/XETeOGwb-S-P-500-does-a-bounce-off-the-lows-carry-into-the-next-session/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US500/XETeOGwb-S-P-500-does-a-bounce-off-the-lows-carry-into-the-next-session/</a></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">3a15404e-2769-44b8-bf25-4a02e0efe776</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 24 Sep 2026 21:51:21 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/16b2348dd8e03cf878825e3795637260866733b068573e2bf3f03dca10668e5b/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiIzYTE1NDA0ZS0yNzY5LTQ0YjgtYmYyNS00YTAyZTBlZmU3NzYiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFiNTk4YWU1ZjhiZjFkNDA3MWI4ZjMxL21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtOS0yNF9fMjEtMzktNTgubXAzIn0=.mp3" length="2460152" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/3a15404e-2769-44b8-bf25-4a02e0efe776/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;The S&amp;amp;P 500 dropped 38 points in the Asia session yesterday and closed down 8, but finished 52 points off its low. In all 13 previous cases like that, the next session traded at least 45 points to the global highs.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Today&apos;s question: does a bounce like that carry into the next session?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I cover: the setup (an Asia-session drop, a lower close and a finish well off the lows), how often the S&amp;amp;P finished higher the next day, the average and worst finish, and the moves to the global highs.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Filters (Mosaic Data Lab, all three, AND): US500 ASIA SESSION (PRIOR DAY) at most -30 points; US500 GLOBAL LOW - CLOSE (PRIOR DAY) at least 40 points (prior day&apos;s cash close minus that day&apos;s US500 low); S&amp;amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) at most -1 point (cash close-to-close).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Across the 13 completed matching sessions since August 2021: the S&amp;amp;P 500 finished higher 12 times (mean +38.9 points, worst -7), and US500 reached at least +45 points to the global highs every time (mean +70.6), measured from the Globex reopen.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Today&apos;s chart on TradingView: &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US500/XETeOGwb-S-P-500-does-a-bounce-off-the-lows-carry-into-the-next-session/&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US500/XETeOGwb-S-P-500-does-a-bounce-off-the-lows-carry-into-the-next-session/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:01:17</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>S&amp;P 500: Does a Bounce Off the Lows Carry Into the Next Session? | 25 Sep 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[AUS200: A Weak Start, Then a Turnaround? | 24 Sep 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>A weak overnight lead and a weak prior-day first hour: does early selling persist, or can the ASX session turn around?</p><p><br /></p><p>I cover the first 15 minutes, first hour and full ASX session across the same 14 historical cases: 13/14 first 15 minutes finished negative (average -15.14 points), 10/14 first hours finished negative (average -18.79 points), yet 7/14 ASX sessions finished positive.</p><p><br /></p><p>Active filters, combined with AND:</p><p>AUS200 OVERNIGHT FUTURES DISLOCATION (PRE) ≤ -80 points.</p><p>AUS200 FIRST HOUR (PRIOR DAY) ≤ -15 points.</p><p><br /></p><p>15 dates matched the filters. 29 November 2021 is excluded from all comparisons above because its first 15-minute observation is missing. These are small-sample historical frequencies, not forecast probabilities. First 15 minutes and first hour are measured from 10am Sydney; ASX session means AUS200 10am–4pm Sydney, not the XJO cash index close-to-close.</p><p><br /></p><p>TradingView chart and research: <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/W68pQOZ2-AUS200-can-a-weak-first-15-minutes-recover/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/W68pQOZ2-AUS200-can-a-weak-first-15-minutes-recover/</a></p><p><br /></p><p>The TradingView chart uses 8,661.6 observed at 7:53am Brisbane as a provisional reference, not the actual 10am Sydney session open.</p><p><br /></p><p>Explore the data: <a href="https://mosaic.trade" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow">https://mosaic.trade</a></p><p><br /></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">0fedc007-7423-4da1-9f64-1e8051bee7c6</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 23 Sep 2026 21:47:06 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/6b204cd2fee05bb3afb7e475098ed0a913d71588ceec5dda1d6e63fb9bfb8d01/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiIwZmVkYzAwNy03NDIzLTRkYTEtOWY2NC0xZTgwNTFiZWU3YzYiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFiNDQ3MTk2NDU2MjYyZmYzNDQ0Mjc0L21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtOS0yM19fMjEtMzktMzcubXAzIn0=.mp3" length="2707584" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/0fedc007-7423-4da1-9f64-1e8051bee7c6/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;A weak overnight lead and a weak prior-day first hour: does early selling persist, or can the ASX session turn around?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I cover the first 15 minutes, first hour and full ASX session across the same 14 historical cases: 13/14 first 15 minutes finished negative (average -15.14 points), 10/14 first hours finished negative (average -18.79 points), yet 7/14 ASX sessions finished positive.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Active filters, combined with AND:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;AUS200 OVERNIGHT FUTURES DISLOCATION (PRE) ≤ -80 points.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;AUS200 FIRST HOUR (PRIOR DAY) ≤ -15 points.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;15 dates matched the filters. 29 November 2021 is excluded from all comparisons above because its first 15-minute observation is missing. These are small-sample historical frequencies, not forecast probabilities. First 15 minutes and first hour are measured from 10am Sydney; ASX session means AUS200 10am–4pm Sydney, not the XJO cash index close-to-close.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;TradingView chart and research: &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/W68pQOZ2-AUS200-can-a-weak-first-15-minutes-recover/&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/W68pQOZ2-AUS200-can-a-weak-first-15-minutes-recover/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The TradingView chart uses 8,661.6 observed at 7:53am Brisbane as a provisional reference, not the actual 10am Sydney session open.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Explore the data: &lt;a href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade&quot; rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:01:25</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>AUS200: A Weak Start, Then a Turnaround? | 24 Sep 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[S&P 500 Up, AUS200 Lagging — Does Australia Catch Up? | 22 Sep 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>The S&amp;P 500 rallied strongly while Australia has not followed to the same extent. I look at what happened on the previous 18 occasions when the S&amp;P 500 gained at least 90 points and the AUS200 overnight futures dislocation was at most 50 points.</p><p>The average AUS200 ASX session finished 16 points above its 10am open. Nine of 18 traded at least 40 points above that open. Within those nine, seven traded less than 13 points below it. Among the nine weakest session finishes, eight traded less than 10 points above the open all day, including two that never traded above it.</p><p>Filters (AND):</p><p>- S&amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≥ 90 points</p><p>- AUS200 OVERNIGHT FUTURES DISLOCATION (PRE) ≤ 50 points</p><p>The ASX session is the 4pm close minus the 10am session anchor. Highs and lows are excursions from that anchor. The sample describes historical cases and does not establish the order or timing of moves.</p><p>TradingView chart and research: <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/aNEs4rqX-US-rally-Australia-lagging-does-the-ASX-catch-up/" target="_blank">https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/aNEs4rqX-US-rally-Australia-lagging-does-the-ASX-catch-up/</a></p><p>Explore Mosaic: <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://mosaic.trade" target="_blank">https://mosaic.trade</a></p><p>Listen to Nothing To See Here: <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://sywbdt.substack.com/s/nothing-to-see-here" target="_blank">https://sywbdt.substack.com/s/nothing-to-see-here</a></p><p>00:00 Introduction</p><p>00:17 Does Australia catch up?</p><p>00:29 The historical filters</p><p>00:39 ASX session results</p><p>01:03 Stronger and weaker sessions</p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">c40a6c6c-9336-4f77-b6de-a9eda18abc23</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 21 Sep 2026 21:38:51 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/0749e3174e8652f0c5e144148a5a49e6e3abdafa870d9a809b8275a6c431ab0b/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiJjNDBhNmM2Yy05MzM2LTRmNzctYjZkZS1hOWVkYTE4YWJjMjMiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFiMWEzZWI3ZDFjNzk2YjVmNjE5ODgwL21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtOS0yMV9fMjEtMzgtNTQubXAzIn0=.mp3" length="2010636" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/c40a6c6c-9336-4f77-b6de-a9eda18abc23/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;The S&amp;amp;P 500 rallied strongly while Australia has not followed to the same extent. I look at what happened on the previous 18 occasions when the S&amp;amp;P 500 gained at least 90 points and the AUS200 overnight futures dislocation was at most 50 points.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The average AUS200 ASX session finished 16 points above its 10am open. Nine of 18 traded at least 40 points above that open. Within those nine, seven traded less than 13 points below it. Among the nine weakest session finishes, eight traded less than 10 points above the open all day, including two that never traded above it.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Filters (AND):&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;- S&amp;amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≥ 90 points&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;- AUS200 OVERNIGHT FUTURES DISLOCATION (PRE) ≤ 50 points&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The ASX session is the 4pm close minus the 10am session anchor. Highs and lows are excursions from that anchor. The sample describes historical cases and does not establish the order or timing of moves.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;TradingView chart and research: &lt;a rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot; href=&quot;https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/aNEs4rqX-US-rally-Australia-lagging-does-the-ASX-catch-up/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUS200/aNEs4rqX-US-rally-Australia-lagging-does-the-ASX-catch-up/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Explore Mosaic: &lt;a rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot; href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Listen to Nothing To See Here: &lt;a rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot; href=&quot;https://sywbdt.substack.com/s/nothing-to-see-here&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://sywbdt.substack.com/s/nothing-to-see-here&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;00:00 Introduction&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;00:17 Does Australia catch up?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;00:29 The historical filters&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;00:39 ASX session results&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;01:03 Stronger and weaker sessions&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:01:24</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>S&amp;P 500 Up, AUS200 Lagging — Does Australia Catch Up? | 22 Sep 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[FTSE and AUS200 Down, S&P 500 Up — What Happened Next? | 21 Sep 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>The FTSE and Australian overnight futures were lower, while the previous S&amp;P 500 session finished higher. Across eight completed historical cases matching that setup, seven finished with the S&amp;P 500 lower. Five traded more than 100 points below the global-session open; the average move to the low was 105 points versus 20 points to the high.</p><p>Filters (all combined with AND):</p><p>FTSE (PRIOR DAY) ≤ -100 points</p><p>AUS200 OVERNIGHT FUTURES DISLOCATION (PRE) ≤ -1 point</p><p>S&amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≥ +1 point</p><p>TradingView companion: <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US500/qya8qnXd-S-P-500-up-FTSE-down-eight-historical-cases-for-Monday/" target="_blank">https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US500/qya8qnXd-S-P-500-up-FTSE-down-eight-historical-cases-for-Monday/</a></p><p>00:00 Intro</p><p>00:09 Today’s question</p><p>00:38 Three historical conditions</p><p>00:51 Eight completed cases</p><p>01:14 Interrogate it yourself at Mosaic</p><p>01:21 Outro</p><p>Explore Mosaic: <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://mosaic.trade" target="_blank">https://mosaic.trade</a></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">a5cb2511-38fa-4440-9e40-e6f47083c692</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 20 Sep 2026 20:21:00 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/b5fb9691ec399df63f814d9f05feb7b9e4e8722b4b56f08ba49b1541c013927e/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiJhNWNiMjUxMS0zOGZhLTQ0NDAtOWU0MC1lNmY0NzA4M2M2OTIiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFhZTU3MDcwMDU3ODllODdmYWE3OTBjL21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtOS0xOV9fOS0zNC0zLm1wMyJ9.mp3" length="2149190" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/a5cb2511-38fa-4440-9e40-e6f47083c692/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;The FTSE and Australian overnight futures were lower, while the previous S&amp;amp;P 500 session finished higher. Across eight completed historical cases matching that setup, seven finished with the S&amp;amp;P 500 lower. Five traded more than 100 points below the global-session open; the average move to the low was 105 points versus 20 points to the high.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Filters (all combined with AND):&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;FTSE (PRIOR DAY) ≤ -100 points&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;AUS200 OVERNIGHT FUTURES DISLOCATION (PRE) ≤ -1 point&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;S&amp;amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≥ +1 point&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;TradingView companion: &lt;a rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot; href=&quot;https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US500/qya8qnXd-S-P-500-up-FTSE-down-eight-historical-cases-for-Monday/&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US500/qya8qnXd-S-P-500-up-FTSE-down-eight-historical-cases-for-Monday/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;00:00 Intro&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;00:09 Today’s question&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;00:38 Three historical conditions&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;00:51 Eight completed cases&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;01:14 Interrogate it yourself at Mosaic&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;01:21 Outro&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Explore Mosaic: &lt;a rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot; href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:01:30</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>FTSE and AUS200 Down, S&amp;P 500 Up — What Happened Next? | 21 Sep 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[ASX 200: A Strong Overnight Lead, Then a Flat or Lower Reopen? | 18 Sep 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>A strong US session and a positive overnight lead for AUS200 — but what happened when Friday's initial futures reopen was flat or lower?</p><p>I use Mosaic to examine 13 previous occasions matching this combination.</p><p>I cover:</p><p>• ASX session finishes: 11 of 13 below the session open, about 85%.</p><p>• Average ASX session: -26.77 points, rounded to -27.</p><p>• Average excursion from the ASX session open: high +14.38 points, low -43.54 points — roughly three times as much downside as upside.</p><p>Filters used (all combined with AND):</p><p>• Day = Fri.</p><p>• S&amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≥ 50 points.</p><p>• AUS200 OVERNIGHT FUTURES DISLOCATION (PRE) ≥ 30 points.</p><p>• AUS200 INITIAL OPEN GAP ≤ 0 points.</p><p>The initial opening gap is measured from the overnight futures close to the initial futures reopen. It includes a flat gap. The ASX session outcomes measure AUS200 from the 10am session open through 4pm Sydney time; they are not the XJO cash index close-to-close result. High and low excursions do not establish the order of intraday moves.</p><p>Historical sample: 13 completed matching observations, 3 Dec 2021–31 Jul 2026. At recording, today's opening condition had not yet occurred; this is conditional context, not a forecast.</p><p>Reopen the Data Lab view:</p><p><a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://mosaic.trade/datalab?view=0d0f73838be5316590ddcefd4c7af495" target="_blank">https://mosaic.trade/datalab?view=0d0f73838be5316590ddcefd4c7af495</a></p><p>Explore Mosaic: <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://mosaic.trade" target="_blank">https://mosaic.trade</a></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">da8fee33-e03a-4308-a889-04dea5cfc8b7</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 17 Sep 2026 22:01:43 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/29547e6dfb5807f31117ea2b6ce9c9b7d1eaba07fd41c2ab6b0f5d4eb4b09215/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiJkYThmZWUzMy1lMDNhLTQzMDgtYTg4OS0wNGRlYTVjZmM4YjciLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFhYzYyNTk2ZTUyNjZiMTgyNWJlOGM4L05UU0gtMTgtU2VwLTIwMjYtZmluYWwtcG9kY2FzdC0yMDI2LTktMTdfXzIxLTU3LTQ1Lm1wMyJ9.mp3" length="2552939" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/da8fee33-e03a-4308-a889-04dea5cfc8b7/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;A strong US session and a positive overnight lead for AUS200 — but what happened when Friday&apos;s initial futures reopen was flat or lower?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I use Mosaic to examine 13 previous occasions matching this combination.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I cover:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• ASX session finishes: 11 of 13 below the session open, about 85%.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• Average ASX session: -26.77 points, rounded to -27.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• Average excursion from the ASX session open: high +14.38 points, low -43.54 points — roughly three times as much downside as upside.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Filters used (all combined with AND):&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• Day = Fri.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• S&amp;amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≥ 50 points.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• AUS200 OVERNIGHT FUTURES DISLOCATION (PRE) ≥ 30 points.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• AUS200 INITIAL OPEN GAP ≤ 0 points.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The initial opening gap is measured from the overnight futures close to the initial futures reopen. It includes a flat gap. The ASX session outcomes measure AUS200 from the 10am session open through 4pm Sydney time; they are not the XJO cash index close-to-close result. High and low excursions do not establish the order of intraday moves.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Historical sample: 13 completed matching observations, 3 Dec 2021–31 Jul 2026. At recording, today&apos;s opening condition had not yet occurred; this is conditional context, not a forecast.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Reopen the Data Lab view:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot; href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade/datalab?view=0d0f73838be5316590ddcefd4c7af495&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade/datalab?view=0d0f73838be5316590ddcefd4c7af495&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Explore Mosaic: &lt;a rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot; href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:00:00</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>ASX 200: A Strong Overnight Lead, Then a Flat or Lower Reopen? | 18 Sep 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[S&P 500 Down After FOMC — What Happened Next? | 17 Sep 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>After FOMC, the S&amp;P 500 finished lower but closed at least 20 points off the global low. What happened the next day in the historical sample?</p><p>I use Mosaic to examine seven previous occasions matching that combination.</p><p>I cover:</p><p>• The combined Asia and London first session: positive in all seven cases.</p><p>• The global high: at least 40 points above the global open in six of seven.</p><p>• The S&amp;P 500 full-day finish: four higher, three lower.</p><p>Filters used (all conditions combined with AND):</p><p>• US500 EVENTS contains DAY AFTER FOMC.</p><p>• S&amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≤ -1 point.</p><p>• US500 GLOBAL LOW - CLOSE (PRIOR DAY) ≥ 20 points.</p><p>Measured outcomes are not additional filters. US500 ASIA + LONDON FIRST SESSION runs from the global reopen at 18:00 New York to 12:00 London; that is the first 13 hours for today's session.</p><p>Historical sample: seven completed matching observations, 15 Dec 2022–18 Jun 2026, within the available dataset. This is a small historical sample, not a forecast.</p><p>Reopen the Data Lab view:</p><p><a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://mosaic.trade/datalab?view=e23de7ff5620d02b524059711a63e91e" target="_blank">https://mosaic.trade/datalab?view=e23de7ff5620d02b524059711a63e91e</a></p><p>Explore Mosaic: <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://mosaic.trade" target="_blank">https://mosaic.trade</a></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">6e97f10c-8fe6-4991-82d3-ef4f8d79d660</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 16 Sep 2026 21:25:59 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/e90ada82788ba182530f3390f143b4bb6ab8cb58b9df3d7594d18e6a40985008/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiI2ZTk3ZjEwYy04ZmU2LTQ5OTEtODJkMy1lZjRmOGQ3OWQ2NjAiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFhYjA5Njk5MTUyZjg4YmFjYjZjMjEwL21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtOS0xNl9fMjEtMjYtNC5tcDMifQ==.mp3" length="1587453" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/6e97f10c-8fe6-4991-82d3-ef4f8d79d660/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;After FOMC, the S&amp;amp;P 500 finished lower but closed at least 20 points off the global low. What happened the next day in the historical sample?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I use Mosaic to examine seven previous occasions matching that combination.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I cover:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• The combined Asia and London first session: positive in all seven cases.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• The global high: at least 40 points above the global open in six of seven.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• The S&amp;amp;P 500 full-day finish: four higher, three lower.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Filters used (all conditions combined with AND):&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• US500 EVENTS contains DAY AFTER FOMC.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• S&amp;amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≤ -1 point.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• US500 GLOBAL LOW - CLOSE (PRIOR DAY) ≥ 20 points.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Measured outcomes are not additional filters. US500 ASIA + LONDON FIRST SESSION runs from the global reopen at 18:00 New York to 12:00 London; that is the first 13 hours for today&apos;s session.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Historical sample: seven completed matching observations, 15 Dec 2022–18 Jun 2026, within the available dataset. This is a small historical sample, not a forecast.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Reopen the Data Lab view:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot; href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade/datalab?view=e23de7ff5620d02b524059711a63e91e&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade/datalab?view=e23de7ff5620d02b524059711a63e91e&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Explore Mosaic: &lt;a rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot; href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:01:06</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>S&amp;P 500 Down After FOMC — What Happened Next? | 17 Sep 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[Bitcoin, Australia and the US Sell Off Together — What Next? | 16 Sep 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>Bitcoin, Australia and the S&amp;P have sold off together. What happened next in the historical sample?</p><p>In this episode of Nothing to See Here, I use Mosaic to examine 14 completed historical occasions matching the same three conditions.</p><p>I cover:</p><p>• S&amp;P finishes: 13 of 14 ended no worse than seven points down.</p><p>• US500 global lows: a median 33-point excursion below the global open.</p><p>• US500 global highs: all 14 reached at least 24 points above the global open.</p><p>• Australian day futures: seven of 14 finished at least 40 points higher, measured from the overnight close to the ASX close.</p><p>Filters used:</p><p>• BTC D-1 &lt; −2,059.5</p><p>• AUS200 ASX SESSION (PRIOR DAY) &lt; −44 points</p><p>• S&amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≤ −30 points</p><p>All three conditions must hold: AND. Current incomplete outcomes are excluded.</p><p>Explore Mosaic: <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://mosaic.trade" target="_blank">https://mosaic.trade</a></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">2cbca824-23f0-4b58-8e3e-2232e18997f1</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 15 Sep 2026 21:48:18 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/cc1797edd13aded0d54c503e25583590afdc694d092a81f2e910b3f146f380ec/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiIyY2JjYTgyNC0yM2YwLTRiNTgtOGUzZS0yMjMyZTE4OTk3ZjEiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFhOWJmNGJkMjVlMzk1M2ZhODA1ZjYyL21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtOS0xNV9fMjEtNTctMzMubXAzIn0=.mp3" length="2131635" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/2cbca824-23f0-4b58-8e3e-2232e18997f1/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;Bitcoin, Australia and the S&amp;amp;P have sold off together. What happened next in the historical sample?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this episode of Nothing to See Here, I use Mosaic to examine 14 completed historical occasions matching the same three conditions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I cover:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• S&amp;amp;P finishes: 13 of 14 ended no worse than seven points down.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• US500 global lows: a median 33-point excursion below the global open.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• US500 global highs: all 14 reached at least 24 points above the global open.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• Australian day futures: seven of 14 finished at least 40 points higher, measured from the overnight close to the ASX close.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Filters used:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• BTC D-1 &amp;lt; −2,059.5&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• AUS200 ASX SESSION (PRIOR DAY) &amp;lt; −44 points&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• S&amp;amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≤ −30 points&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;All three conditions must hold: AND. Current incomplete outcomes are excluded.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Explore Mosaic: &lt;a rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot; href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:01:29</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>Bitcoin, Australia and the US Sell Off Together — What Next? | 16 Sep 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[Bitcoin Up, S&P 500 Down — What Happened Next? | 15 Sep 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>Bitcoin up. S&amp;P down. What has happened next when those two markets move in opposite directions?</p><p>In this episode, I use Mosaic to look at the historical S&amp;P 500 outcomes after a Bitcoin rally and a prior-day S&amp;P decline.</p><p>I cover:</p><p>• The cross-market disconnect in today’s setup.</p><p>• The historical finishes discussed in the recording.</p><p>• Movement to the global highs and lows, measured from the global-session open.</p><p>Filters used:</p><p>• S&amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≤ −30 points</p><p>• BTC D-1 ≥ 1,000 points</p><p>Both conditions must hold: AND.</p><p>Explore Mosaic: <a rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://mosaic.trade" target="_blank">https://mosaic.trade</a></p><p>I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">7ded0a9b-61cf-4870-9ef5-8223b2bd093b</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 14 Sep 2026 23:02:30 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/2c4f2673095d7b7f46a542cca91535e35c36dcdbe0ac0c57028a1ceccda63669/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiI3ZGVkMGE5Yi02MWNmLTQ4NzAtOWVmNS04MjIzYjJiZDA5M2IiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFhODc4ZmZiZWE3YzE4MzQ1YzQ3OGVkL21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtOS0xNF9fMjItNDUtMTkubXAzIn0=.mp3" length="2234454" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/7ded0a9b-61cf-4870-9ef5-8223b2bd093b/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;Bitcoin up. S&amp;amp;P down. What has happened next when those two markets move in opposite directions?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this episode, I use Mosaic to look at the historical S&amp;amp;P 500 outcomes after a Bitcoin rally and a prior-day S&amp;amp;P decline.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I cover:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• The cross-market disconnect in today’s setup.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• The historical finishes discussed in the recording.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• Movement to the global highs and lows, measured from the global-session open.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Filters used:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• S&amp;amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≤ −30 points&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;• BTC D-1 ≥ 1,000 points&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Both conditions must hold: AND.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Explore Mosaic: &lt;a rel=&quot;noopener noreferrer nofollow&quot; href=&quot;https://mosaic.trade&quot; target=&quot;_blank&quot;&gt;https://mosaic.trade&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:01:10</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>Bitcoin Up, S&amp;P 500 Down — What Happened Next? | 15 Sep 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item><item><title><![CDATA[Strong Friday, Strong Asia — What Happens on Monday? | 14 Nov 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[<p>After a strong Friday and Asia session, does Monday tend to continue higher—or offer movement in both directions?<br /><br />In this episode, I use Mosaic to explore historical Monday behaviour in the S&amp;P 500 and US500, and the movement around the global open.<br /><br />I cover:<br />• The strong finish to the previous week and prior Asia session.<br />• The historical Monday sample discussed in the recording.<br />• Movement above and below the global open.<br />• Why historical context leaves room for more than one outcome.<br /><br />Filters used in this episode:<br />• Day: Mon<br />• S&amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≥ 50 points<br />• US500 ASIA SESSION (PRIOR DAY) ≥ 15 points<br />These conditions are combined with AND.<br /><br />Explore Mosaic: https://mosaic.trade<br /><br />I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.</p>]]></description><guid isPermaLink="false">28d6a632-a2ef-4055-afda-036c2b35db9d</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[David Martin]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 12 Sep 2026 01:10:50 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.riverside.com/hosting-analytics/media/67e1dda49d09bc074ab0f02f86a4124705f30dc1296696f64a2ca234bc868324/eyJlcGlzb2RlSWQiOiIyOGQ2YTYzMi1hMmVmLTQwNTUtYWZkYS0wMzZjMmIzNWRiOWQiLCJwb2RjYXN0SWQiOiI5NzI2MzNhYS0xYTM3LTQyNTMtYTI2YS1jNWI3Mjk4OTIyZDQiLCJhY2NvdW50SWQiOiI2NmQ1ODVlZGI4ZmQ4MmFmZDRkNWQ2NzEiLCJwYXRoIjoibWVkaWEvY2xpcHMvNmFhNGE2MmYxNTg2NDViNjgxZWVjNTUzL21vc2FpYy0yMDI2LTIwMjYtOS0xMl9fMS05LTMubXAzIn0=.mp3" length="2644054" type="audio/mpeg"/><podcast:transcript url="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/episodes/28d6a632-a2ef-4055-afda-036c2b35db9d/transcripts.txt" type="text/plain"/><itunes:summary>&lt;p&gt;After a strong Friday and Asia session, does Monday tend to continue higher—or offer movement in both directions?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In this episode, I use Mosaic to explore historical Monday behaviour in the S&amp;amp;P 500 and US500, and the movement around the global open.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I cover:&lt;br /&gt;• The strong finish to the previous week and prior Asia session.&lt;br /&gt;• The historical Monday sample discussed in the recording.&lt;br /&gt;• Movement above and below the global open.&lt;br /&gt;• Why historical context leaves room for more than one outcome.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Filters used in this episode:&lt;br /&gt;• Day: Mon&lt;br /&gt;• S&amp;amp;P500 (DAY PRIOR) ≥ 50 points&lt;br /&gt;• US500 ASIA SESSION (PRIOR DAY) ≥ 15 points&lt;br /&gt;These conditions are combined with AND.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Explore Mosaic: https://mosaic.trade&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I am the founder of Mosaic and have a commercial interest in the platform. Historical results describe the selected sample and do not predict future outcomes. Educational only; trading involves risk.&lt;/p&gt;</itunes:summary><itunes:explicit>no</itunes:explicit><itunes:duration>00:01:23</itunes:duration><itunes:image href="https://hosting-media.riverside.com/media/podcasts/972633aa-1a37-4253-a26a-c5b7298922d4/logos/24a9db08-57b4-4b82-9322-58a1f141aeaa.jpeg"/><itunes:title>Strong Friday, Strong Asia — What Happens on Monday? | 14 Nov 2026</itunes:title><itunes:episodeType>full</itunes:episodeType></item></channel></rss>